The 2024–25 men’s college basketball season has been an uneven ride for the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC). Once a powerhouse league, the ACC finds itself lagging behind other major conferences like the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12. According to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, the ACC is projected to have just five teams in the NCAA tournament, placing it seventh among all conferences. Yet, in this cloudy picture, one bright star shines vividly—Duke, led by the sensational freshman Cooper Flagg.
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As the fourth-ranked team in the nation, Duke Blue Devils are the ACC’s beacon of hope, boasting a 12-2 record. With their only losses coming against ranked teams like Kansas and Kentucky, the Blue Devils are exceeding expectations, thanks largely to Flagg’s historic contributions. As Duke prepares to face Notre Dame on Saturday, let’s dive into how Flagg and his team are redefining ACC basketball this season.
Cooper Flagg: A Rookie with Superstar Potential
Freshman sensation Cooper Flagg entered the college basketball scene with sky-high expectations. Standing at 6’9″, the Maine native has been hailed as one of the most versatile and impactful prospects in recent memory. Even before stepping onto Duke’s campus, Flagg was projected as the number one pick in the 2025 NBA Draft—a lofty status he continues to uphold.
Flagg’s stats back up the hype. Averaging 17.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, he is one of only 11 players in the nation with a Box Plus/Minus (BPM) above +5 on both offense and defense. His defensive versatility, evidenced by a combined steal and block percentage exceeding 6%, makes him a complete player.
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However, Flagg isn’t without flaws. His three-point shooting remains a work in progress at just 30%. But his overall trajectory is promising. Since his college debut against Maine in November, Flagg has shown consistent improvement, a testament to his adaptability and work ethic.
Freshmen Power: Duke’s Youth Steals the Spotlight
Flagg may be the face of Duke’s freshman class, but he’s not the only one making waves. Players like Kon Knueppel, Khaman Maluach, and Isaiah Evans have also stepped up, providing depth and versatility to a team heavily reliant on young talent.
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Together, Duke’s freshmen contribute an estimated 31.2 points above replacement per game—the highest total in the nation. This youth movement is a stark contrast to teams relying on senior leadership, but it’s paying dividends.
Notably, Duke’s freshman dominance outshines other programs like Rutgers, which features highly-rated newcomers Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey. While Harper is giving Flagg a run for his money as the top freshman in the country, the combined efforts of Duke’s young stars set them apart.
Defense Wins Championships: Duke’s Return to Dominance
For years, Duke has been known for its high-octane offense, producing NBA-ready scorers like Zion Williamson and Paolo Banchero. However, their defensive rankings often fell short of elite status. That’s not the case this season.
Currently ranked third in the nation in defensive efficiency, Duke boasts its best defensive team in over a decade. Flagg’s presence, coupled with veteran Sion James’ contributions, has transformed the Blue Devils into a defensive powerhouse. They’re limiting opponents to low shooting percentages while maintaining disciplined play, committing fewer fouls than past iterations.
Comparisons to Duke’s 2004-05 squad—widely regarded as one of their best defensive teams—are inevitable. While that team excelled at shot-blocking, this year’s Blue Devils are better at defensive rebounding and contesting perimeter shots. These improvements signal that Duke’s defense can be the cornerstone of a deep NCAA tournament run.
Live and Die by the Three: Duke’s Offense Evolves
Under Coach Jon Scheyer, Duke has leaned heavily on three-point shooting, a departure from their historical tendencies. This season, nearly 48% of Duke’s field goal attempts come from beyond the arc, a rate that ranks 33rd nationally.
Players like Tyrese Proctor, Knueppel, and Evans have embraced this philosophy, providing consistent scoring from deep. While Flagg’s role as a shooter is limited, his presence as a facilitator opens up opportunities for his teammates.
This reliance on the three-point shot is a double-edged sword. When Duke is hot, they’re nearly unstoppable. But cold shooting nights could spell trouble, particularly in high-pressure tournament games.
The Road Ahead: Can Duke Secure a No. 1 Seed?
Duke’s storied history includes numerous NCAA tournament appearances as a No. 1 seed, but recent years have seen a decline in their top-tier dominance. The Blue Devils haven’t earned a No. 1 seed since 2019.
This season, however, Duke is primed to reclaim that status. Bracketologists widely project the Blue Devils as a No. 1 seed, with only a few teams—like Auburn and Iowa State—posing serious competition. Duke’s second-place ranking in the NCAA’s NET metric and relatively favorable schedule bolster their case.
To solidify their spot as a top seed, Duke must maintain their defensive intensity and improve their consistency in conference play. With Flagg leading the charge, the Blue Devils have all the tools to make a deep run in March.
