China Revises 2023 GDP to $17.73 Trillion, Eyes Stable Growth in 2024
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China has revised its 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) upwards by 2.7% to 129.4 trillion yuan ($17.73 trillion), as announced by Kang Yi, head of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), during the release of the fifth national economic census. This adjustment reflects the resilience of the world’s second-largest economy, which has faced challenges ranging from the COVID-19 pandemic to a tumultuous global economic landscape.
Policy Support Spurs GDP Growth Amid Challenges
The revision comes as China’s late-year policy measures successfully reignited economic activity, setting the stage for the country to meet its 2023 growth target of “around 5%.” However, potential challenges, including U.S. tariff hikes and subdued household confidence, may weigh on 2024 prospects.
Kang Yi emphasized that the adjustment, which factors in findings from the comprehensive economic census conducted over the past five years, highlights China’s ability to maintain stability despite internal and external pressures.
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2024 Growth Remains Unaffected
Lin Tao, deputy head of the NBS, assured during the briefing that the revised 2023 GDP figure would not significantly impact the 2024 growth rate. This confidence aligns with the World Bank’s updated forecast, which predicts improved growth for China in 2024 and 2025. Nevertheless, analysts caution that structural challenges, particularly in the property sector, could temper the recovery.
Key Insights from the Fifth National Economic Census
The fifth economic census offers a detailed snapshot of how China’s job market and industries have evolved, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings reveal a significant shift in employment dynamics across various sectors:
- Tertiary Industries: Employment in this sector, which includes services like retail, transport, finance, and property, surged by 25.6% from 2018 to 2023.
- Secondary Industries: Job numbers in manufacturing, utilities, and construction fell by 4.8%, reflecting broader shifts in China’s economic structure.
- Property Sector: Employees working directly for property developers dropped by 27% to 2.71 million by the end of 2023, highlighting the impact of the ongoing property crisis. However, overall property-related employment rose by 40.2%, reaching 1.04 million during the same period.
Navigating a Complex International Environment
China’s economic landscape has undergone “profound and complex changes” over the past five years, according to Kang Yi. The global environment, marked by geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, added pressure to domestic challenges like the severe property market crisis.
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Despite these headwinds, the NBS highlighted that China’s economy has shown remarkable resilience, with a generally stable trajectory and progress in key sectors.
Sectoral Resilience and Economic Transformation
China’s ability to adapt is evident in the tertiary sector’s rapid growth. From retail to finance and transport, these industries have absorbed a significant portion of the workforce, underscoring the country’s shift toward a service-oriented economy. At the same time, the decline in secondary sector jobs reflects a pivot away from traditional manufacturing and construction.
The property sector, long a cornerstone of China’s economic growth, continues to face challenges. A 27% drop in employees at property developers signals the strain of the ongoing real estate crisis. However, the 40.2% rise in broader property-related employment demonstrates the sector’s capacity to evolve, even in difficult times.
What Lies Ahead for 2024?
As China prepares to tackle 2024, its policymakers remain optimistic about sustaining growth despite the hurdles. The upward revision of the 2023 GDP underscores the success of recent policy measures and the country’s long-term economic potential.
Key focus areas for 2024 include:
- Strengthening consumer confidence to drive domestic demand.
- Managing structural challenges in the property sector to stabilize the broader economy.
- Mitigating external risks such as potential U.S. tariff hikes.
With the World Bank projecting positive growth and policymakers committed to addressing economic vulnerabilities, China appears poised to navigate the complexities of the global economy while advancing its domestic transformation.
China’s revised GDP for 2023 reflects both its resilience and adaptability, highlighting how policy support and structural changes are shaping its economic future. As the nation gears up for 2024, all eyes remain on how it will balance growth ambitions with the challenges of an evolving global and domestic landscape.
