Novak Djokovic appears to have almost secured his spot at the 2024 ATP Finals after a successful season. However, surprises can still happen, and although his main competitors—Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alex De Minaur, and Grigor Dimitrov—were eliminated in the quarterfinals of the 2024 Paris Masters, Djokovic’s path to Turin is not entirely guaranteed.
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Here are two scenarios that could lead to Djokovic missing out on this year’s ATP Finals:
Scenario 1: Andrey Rublev, Casper Ruud, and Alex De Minaur All Secure Key Victories
Djokovic is currently competing with Andrey Rublev, Casper Ruud, and Alex De Minaur for the final three ATP Finals spots, as five players—Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, and Taylor Fritz—have already secured their places.
For Djokovic to be displaced, the following conditions must occur:
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- Rublev wins the Moselle Open,
- Ruud reaches the semifinals of the Moselle Open,
- and De Minaur wins the Belgrade Open.
If all three conditions are met, Djokovic could drop to 9th place in the ATP Race to Turin, missing out on a spot among the top 8 players who qualify for the ATP Finals. However, this scenario is unlikely, as Rublev faces many challenges, including strong opponents like Lorenzo Sonego, Jan-Lennard Struff, Grigor Dimitrov, and Casper Ruud.
Casper Ruud also faces difficulties on the indoor hard court at the Moselle Open—a surface that is not his specialty. His opponents include Roberto Bautista-Agut and Arthur Rinderknech, who can pose significant challenges.
Similarly, Alex De Minaur would have to overcome tough opponents in Belgrade, including Stanislas Wawrinka, Shang Juncheng, Francisco Cerundolo, and Tommy Paul. Winning on Djokovic’s home turf would be a considerable challenge for De Minaur.
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Scenario 2: Djokovic Chooses Not to Register for the ATP Finals
Another possible scenario is that Djokovic voluntarily chooses not to register for the ATP Finals. This option is feasible as Djokovic has already achieved most of the sport’s major titles, including an Olympic gold medal in Paris this year. He has also been competing less frequently since the US Open, only participating in the Shanghai Masters and opting not to defend his title at the Paris Masters.
Currently, Djokovic is enjoying a vacation in the Maldives rather than preparing for the year-end events like some younger players. His lack of enthusiasm for the ATP Finals is understandable, as he already holds seven titles at the event—a record.
Although the chance of Djokovic missing the ATP Finals is very low, it is not entirely out of the question. If his direct competitors unexpectedly perform at their best, or if he decides not to participate, the 2024 ATP Finals may be without one of the sport’s living legends.
